Prediction: Ron Paul will take 15-20% of the primary vote.
If the last debate was any indication, the upcoming Republican debate on Septermber 15 hosted by CNN in conjunction with YouTube is expected to draw a large audience along the demographics of young adults 18-34.
According to usaelectionpolls.com, Ron Paul’s highest demographic is composed of young adults. Most of the Republican candidates will have a difficult time answering direct personal questions from the young YouTube audience. But Ron Paul has already faced young voters in countless interviews. His consistent and candid responses will set him apart from the rest of the Republican candidates. Furthermore, YouTube is already pro-Ron Paul, in volume of videos watched and popularity.
In the meantime 26,000 people in Ron Paul meet-up groups are promoting Ron Paul independently of the main campaign. The most watched Candidates@Google video is Ron Paul’s with 109,858 views after only one week. This video is over an hour in length.
The most blogged item according to Technorati is consistently “Ron Paul”.
And along the 18-29 age group 33% of people are libertarians, the largest ideological demographic for that age group, which partly explains the popularity of Ron Paul on the internet.
Since 13% of voters in the last election are libertarians, it should be fairly straightforward to predict that Ron Paul will get at least 13% of the vote in the primaries.
Additionally, there is a growing trend for libertarian voter turn out. It increased 3% between the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Because the national polls do not reach young voters and voters who have not voted before, the 3% that registers nationally is a bad indicator of what to expect in the Republican primary.
Based on the number of libertarians who have voted at previous elections; the misrepresentation of young voters at the landline-based national polls; Ron Paul’s growing popularity at this relatively early stage; the strong military support for Ron Paul; the “Streissand Effect“; and the expected high voter turn out by his grassroots supporters, my prediction with the current available data is Ron Paul will take a surprising 15-20% of the primary vote.
Source: The Libertarian Vote by David Boaz and David Kirby.
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Comment by BoruJudasDedrich | July 26th, 2007
I think RP will hit a tipping point and push his numbers even higher.
I don’t care how much money the others make, if RP gets enough money, he will win. How much he needs, I’m not sure, but he doesn’t have to make more than the others…just enough to seem like a viable candidate. I do know he will need a lot more than he has now…and soon. He has to get this money well BEFORE the primaries.
Give ’til it hurts people!
Comment by Roy, Pensacola FL | August 15th, 2007
Why is the main stream media is blocking or boycotting Ron Paul. I am a life long Republican. I am also an Iraqi War veteran and disabled veteran. Is this America or a conspiracy state. He is the only candidate. The rest are all the same. I can’t tell the difference between Democrats and Republicans any more. I beg you please help Ron Paul save our great Republic. To me my friends and family he is our only and best hope. For our children for our future, we must have a tomorrow . The country cannot go on as is. I beseech you to more robustly cover this great American. Restorer of the Republic and possibly the last defender of the Constitution.
Sincerely,
RFD