Prediction: Ron Paul will take 15-20% of the primary vote.
If the last debate was any indication, the upcoming Republican debate on Septermber 15 hosted by CNN in conjunction with YouTube is expected to draw a large audience along the demographics of young adults 18-34.
According to usaelectionpolls.com, Ron Paul’s highest demographic is composed of young adults. Most of the Republican candidates will have a difficult time answering direct personal questions from the young YouTube audience. But Ron Paul has already faced young voters in countless interviews. His consistent and candid responses will set him apart from the rest of the Republican candidates. Furthermore, YouTube is already pro-Ron Paul, in volume of videos watched and popularity.
In the meantime 26,000 people in Ron Paul meet-up groups are promoting Ron Paul independently of the main campaign. The most watched Candidates@Google video is Ron Paul’s with 109,858 views after only one week. This video is over an hour in length.
The most blogged item according to Technorati is consistently “Ron Paul”.
And along the 18-29 age group 33% of people are libertarians, the largest ideological demographic for that age group, which partly explains the popularity of Ron Paul on the internet.
Since 13% of voters in the last election are libertarians, it should be fairly straightforward to predict that Ron Paul will get at least 13% of the vote in the primaries.
Additionally, there is a growing trend for libertarian voter turn out. It increased 3% between the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Because the national polls do not reach young voters and voters who have not voted before, the 3% that registers nationally is a bad indicator of what to expect in the Republican primary.
Based on the number of libertarians who have voted at previous elections; the misrepresentation of young voters at the landline-based national polls; Ron Paul’s growing popularity at this relatively early stage; the strong military support for Ron Paul; the “Streissand Effect“; and the expected high voter turn out by his grassroots supporters, my prediction with the current available data is Ron Paul will take a surprising 15-20% of the primary vote.
Source: The Libertarian Vote by David Boaz and David Kirby.
Comment by BoruJudasDedrich | July 26th, 2007
I think RP will hit a tipping point and push his numbers even higher.
I don’t care how much money the others make, if RP gets enough money, he will win. How much he needs, I’m not sure, but he doesn’t have to make more than the others…just enough to seem like a viable candidate. I do know he will need a lot more than he has now…and soon. He has to get this money well BEFORE the primaries.
Give ’til it hurts people!
Comment by Roy, Pensacola FL | August 15th, 2007
Why is the main stream media is blocking or boycotting Ron Paul. I am a life long Republican. I am also an Iraqi War veteran and disabled veteran. Is this America or a conspiracy state. He is the only candidate. The rest are all the same. I can’t tell the difference between Democrats and Republicans any more. I beg you please help Ron Paul save our great Republic. To me my friends and family he is our only and best hope. For our children for our future, we must have a tomorrow . The country cannot go on as is. I beseech you to more robustly cover this great American. Restorer of the Republic and possibly the last defender of the Constitution.
Sincerely,
RFD
Comment by asshat of a down | September 14th, 2008
Um, no.
Comment by An American | September 17th, 2008
Whats up With everything? Ron paul was right about everything and still the averge american dosent know what ron paul stands for or even know he exists.i know i cant spell well and thats just me but listen didnt he pradict the corent ecanomic crises? there will be a depression like he said at this rate..i will type up more tomorrow
Comment by wooden playhouse | November 7th, 2011
Previously you’ve got to have efficacious online income methods to get you started across experiencing details excellent for an individual’s web-based business organisation. e-wallet
Comment by Nettie Olgin | November 9th, 2011
Hello my loved one! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include almost all important infos. I?¦d like to look extra posts like this .
Comment by Jaymie Stow | November 12th, 2011
Great post!
Comment by health insurance company virginia | November 14th, 2011
I am working on consolodating my online brand and identity. How to i set my blog up to receive the comments i post on others blogs or the questions I answer on Yahoo Answers or Linked in Q&A? . . What do I have to do when i comment or answer on others sites to ensure it improves my SEO?.
Comment by free online scratch cards | November 16th, 2011
Great site dude! Finally found what Ive been looking for, thanks!
Comment by bistrot paris | November 23rd, 2011
Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love studying more on this topic. If potential, as you achieve expertise, would you mind updating your weblog with extra info? It is extremely useful for me.
Comment by cheap beats by dre | November 25th, 2011
http://www.cheapbeatsbydresolo.com/ IMF 45500000000 euros, Spain can get 23300000000 euros, the bilateral debt, still appears to be an utterly inadequate measure.
British hopes to revive the export” self-help”
23, the Bank of England published twice a year the systemic risk survey: 68 of surveyed banks, insurance firms and hedge funds believe that since the fall of 2008, Britain is facing the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the largest financial crisis.
Although in the eurozone, Britain by the eurozone debt crisis is still deeply, the eurozone crisis has caused the British capital market in a dry edge.
Because of the debt crisis hit the market confidence, coupled with banks lead to liquidity dried up,
Comment by eletric bikes | January 11th, 2012
Parking spaces are tough to come by in the city but not for those who ride an electric bike. To decide on which electric bike is right for you go to Google and type in electric bike.
Comment by astma | January 27th, 2012
Od dawna szuka?em artyku?u na temat Prediction: Ron Paul will take 15-20% of the primary vote. » The Truth @ The Spin Factor . Dzi?ki
Comment by Champion Wheels | March 25th, 2012
Hi, Neat post. There is a problem with your website in internet explorer, would check this… IE still is the market leader and a good portion of people will miss your fantastic writing due to this problem.
Comment by Lead Generation Service | March 27th, 2012
F*ckin’ remarkable things here. I am very glad to see your article. Thanks a lot and i’m looking forward to contact you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?
Comment by gamefly promo code on tv | March 27th, 2012
Sweet internet site , super design and style , real clean and employ friendly .
Comment by Eleanora Latronica | April 10th, 2012
gambling bettingbonuses.biz
Comment by taco franchise | April 11th, 2012
This valuable place may possibly be the advisabale I have by chance spotted. Most definitely i’ll ensure in order to indicate to all my personal good
Comment by candle wax | May 16th, 2012
I have been checking out some of your posts and it’s nice stuff. I will make sure to bookmark your site.